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Doncaster Belles vs Huddersfield Town W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Doncaster Belles
Doncaster Belles
FT
0 – 3
Huddersfield Town W
Huddersfield Town W
11/13/2022FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 1st RoundMoorends Miners Welfare

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Doncaster Belles56%
×Draw21%
Huddersfield Town W24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Doncaster Belles
2.19
Huddersfield Town W
1.38

Doncaster Belles creates 59% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 8 away

creates per match

Doncaster Belles
2.00
Huddersfield Town W
1.50

allows per match

Doncaster Belles
1.25
Huddersfield Town W
2.38

finishing

Doncaster Belles+0.00on par
Huddersfield Town W+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Doncaster Belles ↓

Huddersfield Town W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Doncaster Belles or draw
76%
Doncaster Belles or Huddersfield Town W
79%
Draw or Huddersfield Town W
44%

Winning margin

Doncaster Belles wins by 2+
34%
Huddersfield Town W wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Doncaster Belles 1+ goals
89%
Doncaster Belles 2+ goals
64%
Doncaster Belles 3+ goals
37%
Huddersfield Town W 1+ goals
75%
Huddersfield Town W 2+ goals
40%
Huddersfield Town W 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Doncaster Belles (draw refunded)
70%
Huddersfield Town W (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Doncaster Belles at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Huddersfield Town W away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Doncaster Belles attack 2.00 + Huddersfield Town W defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 2.19

Huddersfield Town W attack 1.50 + Doncaster Belles defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Doncaster Belles scores more
56%
level
21%
Huddersfield Town W scores more
24%

Doncaster Belles at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Doncaster Belles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Women's Cup: Doncaster Belles 0–3 Huddersfield Town W

Huddersfield Town W beat Doncaster Belles 3-0 in FA Women's Cup on November 13, 2022.

The match was played at Moorends Miners Welfare in Moorends, South Yorkshire.