Donaustauf 0–2 Jahn Regensburg II: Result & Stats

Donaustauf

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Jahn Regensburg II

5/3/2023

Oberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 26Sportzentrum Donaustauf - Platz 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Donaustauf40%

×Draw22%

Jahn Regensburg II38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DonaustaufExpected goals in this matchJahn Regensburg II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.79

Donaustauf

1.85

Jahn Regensburg II

1.79

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 35 home / 69 away

1.80

creates per match

1.48

2.11

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Donaustauf

1.80

Jahn Regensburg II

1.48

allows per match

Donaustauf

2.11

Jahn Regensburg II

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Donaustauf+0.00on par

Jahn Regensburg II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Donaustauf ↓

Jahn Regensburg II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Donaustauf or draw

62%

Donaustauf or Jahn Regensburg II

78%

Draw or Jahn Regensburg II

60%

Winning margin

Donaustauf wins by 2+

21%

Jahn Regensburg II wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Donaustauf 1+ goals

84%

Donaustauf 2+ goals

55%

Donaustauf 3+ goals

28%

Jahn Regensburg II 1+ goals

83%

Jahn Regensburg II 2+ goals

53%

Jahn Regensburg II 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Donaustauf (draw refunded)

52%

Jahn Regensburg II (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Donaustauf at home — creates 1.80, concedes 2.11 · 35 matches

Jahn Regensburg II away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.91 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Donaustauf attack 1.80 + Jahn Regensburg II defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.85

Jahn Regensburg II attack 1.48 + Donaustauf defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Donaustauf scores more

40%

level

22%

Jahn Regensburg II scores more

38%

Donaustauf at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Donaustauf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff