Donaustauf 2–3 Ingolstadt II: Result & Stats

Donaustauf

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Ingolstadt II

Y. Tambo 51'

K. Mutove 47'

J. Krupa 84'

F. Cavadias 59'

M. Wiezorrek 54'

10/21/2023

Oberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 18Sportzentrum Donaustauf - Platz 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Donaustauf34%

×Draw22%

Ingolstadt II44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DonaustaufExpected goals in this matchIngolstadt II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.96

Donaustauf

1.69

Ingolstadt II

1.96

Ingolstadt II creates 16% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 51 away

1.80

creates per match

1.80

2.11

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Donaustauf

1.80

Ingolstadt II

1.80

allows per match

Donaustauf

2.11

Ingolstadt II

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Donaustauf+0.00on par

Ingolstadt II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Donaustauf ↓

Ingolstadt II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Donaustauf or draw

56%

Donaustauf or Ingolstadt II

78%

Draw or Ingolstadt II

66%

Winning margin

Donaustauf wins by 2+

17%

Ingolstadt II wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Donaustauf 1+ goals

82%

Donaustauf 2+ goals

50%

Donaustauf 3+ goals

24%

Ingolstadt II 1+ goals

86%

Ingolstadt II 2+ goals

58%

Ingolstadt II 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Donaustauf (draw refunded)

43%

Ingolstadt II (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Donaustauf at home — creates 1.80, concedes 2.11 · 35 matches

Ingolstadt II away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.57 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Donaustauf attack 1.80 + Ingolstadt II defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.69

Ingolstadt II attack 1.80 + Donaustauf defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Donaustauf scores more

34%

level

22%

Ingolstadt II scores more

44%

Ingolstadt II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Ingolstadt II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

47'

K. Mutove

51'

Y. Tambo

54'

M. Wiezorrek

59'

F. Cavadias

84'

J. Krupa

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff