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Donaustauf vs Großbardorf — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Donaustauf
Donaustauf
FT
5 – 2
Großbardorf
Großbardorf
7/16/2022Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 1Sportzentrum Donaustauf - Platz 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Donaustauf43%
×Draw22%
Großbardorf35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Donaustauf
1.96
Großbardorf
1.76

Donaustauf creates 11% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 17 away

creates per match

Donaustauf
1.80
Großbardorf
1.41

allows per match

Donaustauf
2.11
Großbardorf
2.12

finishing

Donaustauf+0.00on par
Großbardorf+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Donaustauf ↓

Großbardorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Donaustauf or draw
65%
Donaustauf or Großbardorf
78%
Draw or Großbardorf
57%

Winning margin

Donaustauf wins by 2+
24%
Großbardorf wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Donaustauf 1+ goals
86%
Donaustauf 2+ goals
58%
Donaustauf 3+ goals
31%
Großbardorf 1+ goals
83%
Großbardorf 2+ goals
52%
Großbardorf 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Donaustauf (draw refunded)
55%
Großbardorf (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Donaustauf at home — creates 1.80, concedes 2.11 · 35 matches

Großbardorf away — creates 1.41, concedes 2.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Donaustauf attack 1.80 + Großbardorf defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.96

Großbardorf attack 1.41 + Donaustauf defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Donaustauf scores more
43%
level
22%
Großbardorf scores more
35%

Donaustauf at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Donaustauf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Bayern Nord: Donaustauf 5–2 Großbardorf

Donaustauf beat Großbardorf 5-2 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on July 16, 2022.

The match was played at Sportzentrum Donaustauf - Platz 1 in Donaustauf.