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Donaustauf vs Gebenbach — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Donaustauf
Donaustauf
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Gebenbach
Gebenbach
7/22/2023Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 1Sportzentrum Donaustauf - Platz 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Donaustauf33%
×Draw21%
Gebenbach46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Donaustauf
1.71
Gebenbach
2.05

Gebenbach creates 20% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 68 away

creates per match

Donaustauf
1.80
Gebenbach
1.99

allows per match

Donaustauf
2.11
Gebenbach
1.62

finishing

Donaustauf+0.00on par
Gebenbach+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Donaustauf ↓

Gebenbach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Donaustauf or draw
54%
Donaustauf or Gebenbach
79%
Draw or Gebenbach
67%

Winning margin

Donaustauf wins by 2+
16%
Gebenbach wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Donaustauf 1+ goals
82%
Donaustauf 2+ goals
51%
Donaustauf 3+ goals
24%
Gebenbach 1+ goals
87%
Gebenbach 2+ goals
61%
Gebenbach 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Donaustauf (draw refunded)
42%
Gebenbach (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Donaustauf at home — creates 1.80, concedes 2.11 · 35 matches

Gebenbach away — creates 1.99, concedes 1.62 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Donaustauf attack 1.80 + Gebenbach defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.71

Gebenbach attack 1.99 + Donaustauf defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 2.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Donaustauf scores more
33%
level
21%
Gebenbach scores more
46%

Gebenbach at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Gebenbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Bayern Nord: Donaustauf 0–2 Gebenbach

Gebenbach beat Donaustauf 2-0 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on July 22, 2023.

The match was played at Sportzentrum Donaustauf - Platz 1 in Donaustauf.