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Donaustauf vs Fortuna Regensburg — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Donaustauf
Donaustauf
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Fortuna Regensburg
Fortuna Regensburg
9/2/2023Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 9Sportzentrum Donaustauf - Platz 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Donaustauf39%
×Draw22%
Fortuna Regensburg39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Donaustauf
1.83
Fortuna Regensburg
1.85

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 35 home / 52 away

creates per match

Donaustauf
1.80
Fortuna Regensburg
1.60

allows per match

Donaustauf
2.11
Fortuna Regensburg
1.85

finishing

Donaustauf+0.00on par
Fortuna Regensburg+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Donaustauf ↓

Fortuna Regensburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Donaustauf or draw
61%
Donaustauf or Fortuna Regensburg
78%
Draw or Fortuna Regensburg
61%

Winning margin

Donaustauf wins by 2+
20%
Fortuna Regensburg wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Donaustauf 1+ goals
84%
Donaustauf 2+ goals
54%
Donaustauf 3+ goals
28%
Fortuna Regensburg 1+ goals
84%
Fortuna Regensburg 2+ goals
55%
Fortuna Regensburg 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Donaustauf (draw refunded)
49%
Fortuna Regensburg (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Donaustauf at home — creates 1.80, concedes 2.11 · 35 matches

Fortuna Regensburg away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.85 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Donaustauf attack 1.80 + Fortuna Regensburg defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.83

Fortuna Regensburg attack 1.60 + Donaustauf defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Donaustauf scores more
39%
level
22%
Fortuna Regensburg scores more
39%

Donaustauf at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Donaustauf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Bayern Nord: Donaustauf 1–1 Fortuna Regensburg

Donaustauf and Fortuna Regensburg drew 1-1 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on September 2, 2023.

The match was played at Sportzentrum Donaustauf - Platz 1 in Donaustauf.