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Donaustauf vs ASV Neumarkt — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Donaustauf
Donaustauf
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 1
ASV Neumarkt
ASV Neumarkt
E. Meyer 89'
L. Gumpelein 81'
P. Nutz 73'
S. Mjaki 64'
J. Marx 41'
4/20/2024Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 33Sportzentrum Donaustauf - Platz 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Donaustauf38%
×Draw22%
ASV Neumarkt40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Donaustauf
1.79
ASV Neumarkt
1.84

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 35 home / 69 away

creates per match

Donaustauf
1.80
ASV Neumarkt
1.58

allows per match

Donaustauf
2.11
ASV Neumarkt
1.77

finishing

Donaustauf+0.00on par
ASV Neumarkt+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Donaustauf ↓

ASV Neumarkt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Donaustauf or draw
60%
Donaustauf or ASV Neumarkt
78%
Draw or ASV Neumarkt
62%

Winning margin

Donaustauf wins by 2+
20%
ASV Neumarkt wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Donaustauf 1+ goals
83%
Donaustauf 2+ goals
53%
Donaustauf 3+ goals
26%
ASV Neumarkt 1+ goals
84%
ASV Neumarkt 2+ goals
55%
ASV Neumarkt 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Donaustauf (draw refunded)
49%
ASV Neumarkt (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Donaustauf at home — creates 1.80, concedes 2.11 · 35 matches

ASV Neumarkt away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.77 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Donaustauf attack 1.80 + ASV Neumarkt defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.79

ASV Neumarkt attack 1.58 + Donaustauf defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Donaustauf scores more
38%
level
22%
ASV Neumarkt scores more
40%

ASV Neumarkt at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "ASV Neumarkt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'
J. Marx
64'
S. Mjaki
73'
P. Nutz
81'
L. Gumpelein
89'
E. Meyer

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Bayern Nord: Donaustauf 0–5 ASV Neumarkt

ASV Neumarkt beat Donaustauf 5-0 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on April 20, 2024.

Goals: J. Marx (41'), S. Mjaki (64'), P. Nutz (73'), L. Gumpelein (81'), E. Meyer (89').

The match was played at Sportzentrum Donaustauf - Platz 1 in Donaustauf.