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Donau vs Slovan HAC — Landesliga - Wien 2019

Donau
Donau
FT
2 – 0
Slovan HAC
Slovan HAC
8/19/2022Landesliga - WienLandesliga - Wien · Wien - 1Sportplatz SV Donau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Donau53%
×Draw22%
Slovan HAC25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Donau
1.90
Slovan HAC
1.23

Donau creates 54% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 74 away

creates per match

Donau
1.65
Slovan HAC
1.45

allows per match

Donau
1.02
Slovan HAC
2.15

finishing

Donau+0.00on par
Slovan HAC+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Donau ↓

Slovan HAC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Donau or draw
75%
Donau or Slovan HAC
78%
Draw or Slovan HAC
47%

Winning margin

Donau wins by 2+
30%
Slovan HAC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Donau 1+ goals
85%
Donau 2+ goals
56%
Donau 3+ goals
29%
Slovan HAC 1+ goals
71%
Slovan HAC 2+ goals
35%
Slovan HAC 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Donau (draw refunded)
68%
Slovan HAC (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Donau at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.02 · 60 matches

Slovan HAC away — creates 1.45, concedes 2.15 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Donau attack 1.65 + Slovan HAC defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.90

Slovan HAC attack 1.45 + Donau defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Donau scores more
53%
level
22%
Slovan HAC scores more
25%

Donau at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Donau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Donau vs Slovan HAC

Donau beat Slovan HAC 2-0 in Landesliga - Wien on August 19, 2022.

The match was played at Sportplatz SV Donau in Wien.