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Donau vs ASV 13 — Landesliga - Wien 2019

Donau
Donau
FT
3 – 0
ASV 13
ASV 13
11/24/2023Landesliga - WienLandesliga - Wien · Wien - 15Sportplatz SV Donau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Donau63%
×Draw19%
ASV 1318%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Donau
2.31
ASV 13
1.14

Donau creates 103% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 59 away

creates per match

Donau
1.65
ASV 13
1.25

allows per match

Donau
1.02
ASV 13
2.98

finishing

Donau+0.00on par
ASV 13+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Donau ↓

ASV 13 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Donau or draw
82%
Donau or ASV 13
81%
Draw or ASV 13
37%

Winning margin

Donau wins by 2+
41%
ASV 13 wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Donau 1+ goals
90%
Donau 2+ goals
67%
Donau 3+ goals
40%
ASV 13 1+ goals
68%
ASV 13 2+ goals
32%
ASV 13 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Donau (draw refunded)
78%
ASV 13 (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Donau at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.02 · 60 matches

ASV 13 away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.98 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Donau attack 1.65 + ASV 13 defence 2.98 → ÷2 → 2.31

ASV 13 attack 1.25 + Donau defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Donau scores more
63%
level
19%
ASV 13 scores more
18%

Donau at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Donau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Donau 3 – 0 ASV 13

Donau beat ASV 13 3-0 in Landesliga - Wien on November 24, 2023.

The match was played at Sportplatz SV Donau in Wien.