Donau Linz 5–2 Zebau Bad Ischl: Result & Stats

Donau Linz

FT

5 – 2

Zebau Bad Ischl

8/14/2019

Landesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 2LINZ AG Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Donau Linz42%

×Draw21%

Zebau Bad Ischl37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Donau LinzExpected goals in this matchZebau Bad Ischl

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.07

1.93

Donau Linz

2.07

Zebau Bad Ischl

1.93

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 29 away

1.59

creates per match

2.14

1.72

allows per match

2.55

creates per match

Donau Linz

1.59

Zebau Bad Ischl

2.14

allows per match

Donau Linz

1.72

Zebau Bad Ischl

2.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Donau Linz+0.00on par

Zebau Bad Ischl+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Donau Linz ↓

Zebau Bad Ischl →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–27%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Donau Linz or draw

63%

Donau Linz or Zebau Bad Ischl

79%

Draw or Zebau Bad Ischl

58%

Winning margin

Donau Linz wins by 2+

24%

Zebau Bad Ischl wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Donau Linz 1+ goals

87%

Donau Linz 2+ goals

61%

Donau Linz 3+ goals

34%

Zebau Bad Ischl 1+ goals

85%

Zebau Bad Ischl 2+ goals

57%

Zebau Bad Ischl 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Donau Linz (draw refunded)

53%

Zebau Bad Ischl (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Donau Linz at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.72 · 29 matches

Zebau Bad Ischl away — creates 2.14, concedes 2.55 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Donau Linz attack 1.59 + Zebau Bad Ischl defence 2.55 → ÷2 → 2.07

Zebau Bad Ischl attack 2.14 + Donau Linz defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Donau Linz scores more

42%

level

21%

Zebau Bad Ischl scores more

37%

Donau Linz at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Donau Linz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff