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Donau Linz vs Union St. Florian — Landesliga - Oberosterreich 2019

Donau Linz
Donau Linz
FT
1 – 1
Union St. Florian
Union St. Florian
2/25/2022Landesliga - OberosterreichLandesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 15LINZ AG Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Donau Linz46%
×Draw23%
Union St. Florian30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Donau Linz
1.79
Union St. Florian
1.41

Donau Linz creates 27% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 29 away

creates per match

Donau Linz
1.59
Union St. Florian
1.10

allows per match

Donau Linz
1.72
Union St. Florian
2.00

finishing

Donau Linz+0.00on par
Union St. Florian+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Donau Linz ↓

Union St. Florian →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Donau Linz or draw
70%
Donau Linz or Union St. Florian
77%
Draw or Union St. Florian
54%

Winning margin

Donau Linz wins by 2+
25%
Union St. Florian wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Donau Linz 1+ goals
83%
Donau Linz 2+ goals
53%
Donau Linz 3+ goals
26%
Union St. Florian 1+ goals
76%
Union St. Florian 2+ goals
41%
Union St. Florian 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Donau Linz (draw refunded)
60%
Union St. Florian (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Donau Linz at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.72 · 29 matches

Union St. Florian away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.00 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Donau Linz attack 1.59 + Union St. Florian defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.79

Union St. Florian attack 1.10 + Donau Linz defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Donau Linz scores more
46%
level
23%
Union St. Florian scores more
30%

Donau Linz at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Donau Linz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Donau Linz vs Union St. Florian

Donau Linz and Union St. Florian drew 1-1 in Landesliga - Oberosterreich on February 25, 2022.

The match was played at LINZ AG Arena in Linz.