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Donau Linz vs Union Perg — Landesliga - Oberosterreich 2019

Donau Linz
Donau Linz
FT
3 – 3
Union Perg
Union Perg
8/23/2019Landesliga - OberosterreichLandesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 4LINZ AG Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Donau Linz44%
×Draw23%
Union Perg33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Donau Linz
1.74
Union Perg
1.48

Donau Linz creates 18% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 87 away

creates per match

Donau Linz
1.59
Union Perg
1.25

allows per match

Donau Linz
1.72
Union Perg
1.89

finishing

Donau Linz+0.00on par
Union Perg+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Donau Linz ↓

Union Perg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Donau Linz or draw
67%
Donau Linz or Union Perg
77%
Draw or Union Perg
56%

Winning margin

Donau Linz wins by 2+
23%
Union Perg wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Donau Linz 1+ goals
82%
Donau Linz 2+ goals
52%
Donau Linz 3+ goals
25%
Union Perg 1+ goals
77%
Union Perg 2+ goals
43%
Union Perg 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Donau Linz (draw refunded)
57%
Union Perg (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Donau Linz at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.72 · 29 matches

Union Perg away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.89 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Donau Linz attack 1.59 + Union Perg defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.74

Union Perg attack 1.25 + Donau Linz defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Donau Linz scores more
44%
level
23%
Union Perg scores more
33%

Donau Linz at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Donau Linz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Donau Linz vs Union Perg

Donau Linz and Union Perg drew 3-3 in Landesliga - Oberosterreich on August 23, 2019.

The match was played at LINZ AG Arena in Linz.