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Donau Linz vs Mondsee — Landesliga - Oberosterreich 2019

Donau Linz
Donau Linz
FT
4 – 0
Mondsee
Mondsee
11/9/2019Landesliga - OberosterreichLandesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 15LINZ AG Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Donau Linz39%
×Draw23%
Mondsee39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Donau Linz
1.71
Mondsee
1.71

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 90 away

creates per match

Donau Linz
1.59
Mondsee
1.71

allows per match

Donau Linz
1.72
Mondsee
1.83

finishing

Donau Linz+0.00on par
Mondsee+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Donau Linz ↓

Mondsee →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Donau Linz or draw
61%
Donau Linz or Mondsee
77%
Draw or Mondsee
61%

Winning margin

Donau Linz wins by 2+
20%
Mondsee wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Donau Linz 1+ goals
82%
Donau Linz 2+ goals
51%
Donau Linz 3+ goals
24%
Mondsee 1+ goals
82%
Mondsee 2+ goals
51%
Mondsee 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Donau Linz (draw refunded)
50%
Mondsee (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Donau Linz at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.72 · 29 matches

Mondsee away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.83 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Donau Linz attack 1.59 + Mondsee defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.71

Mondsee attack 1.71 + Donau Linz defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Donau Linz scores more
39%
level
23%
Mondsee scores more
39%

Donau Linz at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Donau Linz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Oberosterreich: Donau Linz 4–0 Mondsee

Donau Linz beat Mondsee 4-0 in Landesliga - Oberosterreich on November 9, 2019.

The match was played at LINZ AG Arena in Linz.