Donau Klagenfurt 3–1 Kraig: Result & Stats

Donau Klagenfurt

FT

3 – 1

Kraig

8/18/2023

Landesliga - Karnten · Kärnten - 5Sportplatz SV Donau Klagenfurt

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Donau Klagenfurt55%

×Draw22%

Kraig23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Donau KlagenfurtExpected goals in this matchKraig

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.17

Donau Klagenfurt

1.94

Kraig

1.17

Donau Klagenfurt creates 66% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 63 away

1.68

creates per match

1.06

1.27

allows per match

2.19

creates per match

Donau Klagenfurt

1.68

Kraig

1.06

allows per match

Donau Klagenfurt

1.27

Kraig

2.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Donau Klagenfurt+0.00on par

Kraig+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Donau Klagenfurt ↓

Kraig →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Donau Klagenfurt or draw

77%

Donau Klagenfurt or Kraig

78%

Draw or Kraig

45%

Winning margin

Donau Klagenfurt wins by 2+

32%

Kraig wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Donau Klagenfurt 1+ goals

86%

Donau Klagenfurt 2+ goals

58%

Donau Klagenfurt 3+ goals

30%

Kraig 1+ goals

69%

Kraig 2+ goals

33%

Kraig 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Donau Klagenfurt (draw refunded)

71%

Kraig (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Donau Klagenfurt at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.27 · 44 matches

Kraig away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.19 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Donau Klagenfurt attack 1.68 + Kraig defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.94

Kraig attack 1.06 + Donau Klagenfurt defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Donau Klagenfurt scores more

55%

level

22%

Kraig scores more

23%

Donau Klagenfurt at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Donau Klagenfurt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff