Don Bosco 0–0 Vita Club: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

Don Bosco

FT

0 – 0

Vita Club

3/24/2024

Ligue 1 · Championship Round - 3Stade du TP Mazembe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Don Bosco32%

×Draw29%

Vita Club39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Don BoscoExpected goals in this matchVita Club

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

1.15

Don Bosco

1.02

Vita Club

1.15

Vita Club creates 13% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 93 away

1.28

creates per match

1.33

0.96

allows per match

0.76

creates per match

Don Bosco

1.28

Vita Club

1.33

allows per match

Don Bosco

0.96

Vita Club

0.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Don Bosco+0.00on par

Vita Club+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Don Bosco ↓

Vita Club →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–113%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Don Bosco or draw

61%

Don Bosco or Vita Club

71%

Draw or Vita Club

68%

Winning margin

Don Bosco wins by 2+

12%

Vita Club wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Don Bosco 1+ goals

64%

Don Bosco 2+ goals

27%

Don Bosco 3+ goals

8%

Vita Club 1+ goals

68%

Vita Club 2+ goals

32%

Vita Club 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Don Bosco (draw refunded)

45%

Vita Club (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Don Bosco at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.96 · 94 matches

Vita Club away — creates 1.33, concedes 0.76 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Don Bosco attack 1.28 + Vita Club defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.02

Vita Club attack 1.33 + Don Bosco defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Don Bosco scores more

32%

level

29%

Vita Club scores more

39%

Vita Club at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Vita Club will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff