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Don Bosco vs Saint Eloi Lupopo — Ligue 1 2019

Don Bosco
Don Bosco
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Saint Eloi Lupopo
Saint Eloi Lupopo
6/21/2025Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Championship Round - 14Stade du TP Mazembe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Don Bosco31%
×Draw29%
Saint Eloi Lupopo41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Don Bosco
1.02
Saint Eloi Lupopo
1.23

Saint Eloi Lupopo creates 21% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 98 away

creates per match

Don Bosco
1.28
Saint Eloi Lupopo
1.49

allows per match

Don Bosco
0.96
Saint Eloi Lupopo
0.77

finishing

Don Bosco+0.00on par
Saint Eloi Lupopo+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Don Bosco ↓

Saint Eloi Lupopo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Don Bosco or draw
59%
Don Bosco or Saint Eloi Lupopo
71%
Draw or Saint Eloi Lupopo
69%

Winning margin

Don Bosco wins by 2+
11%
Saint Eloi Lupopo wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Don Bosco 1+ goals
64%
Don Bosco 2+ goals
27%
Don Bosco 3+ goals
8%
Saint Eloi Lupopo 1+ goals
71%
Saint Eloi Lupopo 2+ goals
35%
Saint Eloi Lupopo 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Don Bosco (draw refunded)
43%
Saint Eloi Lupopo (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Don Bosco at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.96 · 94 matches

Saint Eloi Lupopo away — creates 1.49, concedes 0.77 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Don Bosco attack 1.28 + Saint Eloi Lupopo defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.02

Saint Eloi Lupopo attack 1.49 + Don Bosco defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Don Bosco scores more
31%
level
29%
Saint Eloi Lupopo scores more
41%

Saint Eloi Lupopo at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Saint Eloi Lupopo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: Don Bosco 1–1 Saint Eloi Lupopo

Don Bosco and Saint Eloi Lupopo drew 1-1 in Ligue 1 on June 21, 2025.

The match was played at Stade du TP Mazembe in Lubumbashi.