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Don Bosco vs RCK — Ligue 1 2019

Don Bosco
Don Bosco
FT
2 – 0
RCK
RCK
3/7/2021Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 14Stade du TP Mazembe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Don Bosco52%
×Draw27%
RCK21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Don Bosco
1.42
RCK
0.80

Don Bosco creates 77% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 34 away

creates per match

Don Bosco
1.28
RCK
0.65

allows per match

Don Bosco
0.96
RCK
1.56

finishing

Don Bosco+0.00on par
RCK+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Don Bosco ↓

RCK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Don Bosco or draw
79%
Don Bosco or RCK
73%
Draw or RCK
48%

Winning margin

Don Bosco wins by 2+
26%
RCK wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Don Bosco 1+ goals
76%
Don Bosco 2+ goals
41%
Don Bosco 3+ goals
17%
RCK 1+ goals
55%
RCK 2+ goals
19%
RCK 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Don Bosco (draw refunded)
71%
RCK (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Don Bosco at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.96 · 94 matches

RCK away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.56 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Don Bosco attack 1.28 + RCK defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.42

RCK attack 0.65 + Don Bosco defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Don Bosco scores more
52%
level
27%
RCK scores more
21%

Don Bosco at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Don Bosco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: Don Bosco 2–0 RCK

Don Bosco beat RCK 2-0 in Ligue 1 on March 7, 2021.

The match was played at Stade du TP Mazembe in Lubumbashi.