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Don Bosco vs Malole — Ligue 1 2019

Don Bosco
Don Bosco
FT
6 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Malole
Malole
10/8/2024Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 3Stade du TP Mazembe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Don Bosco54%
×Draw26%
Malole20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Don Bosco
1.52
Malole
0.80

Don Bosco creates 90% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 25 away

creates per match

Don Bosco
1.28
Malole
0.64

allows per match

Don Bosco
0.96
Malole
1.76

finishing

Don Bosco+0.00on par
Malole+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Don Bosco ↓

Malole →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Don Bosco or draw
80%
Don Bosco or Malole
74%
Draw or Malole
46%

Winning margin

Don Bosco wins by 2+
28%
Malole wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Don Bosco 1+ goals
78%
Don Bosco 2+ goals
45%
Don Bosco 3+ goals
20%
Malole 1+ goals
55%
Malole 2+ goals
19%
Malole 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Don Bosco (draw refunded)
73%
Malole (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Don Bosco at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.96 · 94 matches

Malole away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.76 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Don Bosco attack 1.28 + Malole defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.52

Malole attack 0.64 + Don Bosco defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Don Bosco scores more
54%
level
26%
Malole scores more
20%

Don Bosco at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Don Bosco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Don Bosco vs Malole

Don Bosco beat Malole 6-0 in Ligue 1 on October 8, 2024.

The match was played at Stade du TP Mazembe in Lubumbashi.