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Don Bosco vs Etoile de Kivu — Ligue 1 2019

Don Bosco
Don Bosco
CANC
11:30
Etoile de Kivu
Etoile de Kivu
5/31/2023Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 15Stade du TP Mazembe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Don Bosco48%
×Draw28%
Etoile de Kivu24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Don Bosco
1.37
Etoile de Kivu
0.88

Don Bosco creates 56% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 46 away

creates per match

Don Bosco
1.28
Etoile de Kivu
0.80

allows per match

Don Bosco
0.96
Etoile de Kivu
1.46

finishing

Don Bosco+0.00on par
Etoile de Kivu+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Don Bosco ↓

Etoile de Kivu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Don Bosco or draw
76%
Don Bosco or Etoile de Kivu
72%
Draw or Etoile de Kivu
52%

Winning margin

Don Bosco wins by 2+
23%
Etoile de Kivu wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Don Bosco 1+ goals
75%
Don Bosco 2+ goals
40%
Don Bosco 3+ goals
16%
Etoile de Kivu 1+ goals
59%
Etoile de Kivu 2+ goals
22%
Etoile de Kivu 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Don Bosco (draw refunded)
67%
Etoile de Kivu (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Don Bosco at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.96 · 94 matches

Etoile de Kivu away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.46 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Don Bosco attack 1.28 + Etoile de Kivu defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.37

Etoile de Kivu attack 0.80 + Don Bosco defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Don Bosco scores more
48%
level
28%
Etoile de Kivu scores more
24%

Don Bosco at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Don Bosco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Don Bosco vs Etoile de Kivu — Match Preview

Don Bosco face Etoile de Kivu on May 31, 2023 in this Ligue 1 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Don Bosco host Etoile de Kivu at Stade du TP Mazembe.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.