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Don Bosco vs Bukavu Dawa — Ligue 1 2019

Don Bosco
Don Bosco
FT
2 – 0
Bukavu Dawa
Bukavu Dawa
8/27/2019Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 2Stade du TP Mazembe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Don Bosco55%
×Draw25%
Bukavu Dawa21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Don Bosco
1.62
Bukavu Dawa
0.89

Don Bosco creates 82% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 27 away

creates per match

Don Bosco
1.28
Bukavu Dawa
0.81

allows per match

Don Bosco
0.96
Bukavu Dawa
1.96

finishing

Don Bosco+0.00on par
Bukavu Dawa+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Don Bosco ↓

Bukavu Dawa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Don Bosco or draw
79%
Don Bosco or Bukavu Dawa
75%
Draw or Bukavu Dawa
45%

Winning margin

Don Bosco wins by 2+
29%
Bukavu Dawa wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Don Bosco 1+ goals
80%
Don Bosco 2+ goals
48%
Don Bosco 3+ goals
22%
Bukavu Dawa 1+ goals
59%
Bukavu Dawa 2+ goals
22%
Bukavu Dawa 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Don Bosco (draw refunded)
73%
Bukavu Dawa (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Don Bosco at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.96 · 94 matches

Bukavu Dawa away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.96 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Don Bosco attack 1.28 + Bukavu Dawa defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.62

Bukavu Dawa attack 0.81 + Don Bosco defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Don Bosco scores more
55%
level
25%
Bukavu Dawa scores more
21%

Don Bosco at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Don Bosco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: Don Bosco 2–0 Bukavu Dawa

Don Bosco beat Bukavu Dawa 2-0 in Ligue 1 on August 27, 2019.

The match was played at Stade du TP Mazembe in Lubumbashi.