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Don Bosco vs Blessing — Ligue 1 2019

Don Bosco
Don Bosco
FT
0 – 1
Blessing
Blessing
4/11/2021Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 17Stade du TP Mazembe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Don Bosco43%
×Draw30%
Blessing27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Don Bosco
1.20
Blessing
0.89

Don Bosco creates 35% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 62 away

creates per match

Don Bosco
1.28
Blessing
0.81

allows per match

Don Bosco
0.96
Blessing
1.11

finishing

Don Bosco+0.00on par
Blessing+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Don Bosco ↓

Blessing →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Don Bosco or draw
73%
Don Bosco or Blessing
70%
Draw or Blessing
57%

Winning margin

Don Bosco wins by 2+
19%
Blessing wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Don Bosco 1+ goals
70%
Don Bosco 2+ goals
34%
Don Bosco 3+ goals
12%
Blessing 1+ goals
59%
Blessing 2+ goals
22%
Blessing 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Don Bosco (draw refunded)
61%
Blessing (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Don Bosco at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.96 · 94 matches

Blessing away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.11 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Don Bosco attack 1.28 + Blessing defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.20

Blessing attack 0.81 + Don Bosco defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Don Bosco scores more
43%
level
30%
Blessing scores more
27%

Don Bosco at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Don Bosco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: Don Bosco 0–1 Blessing

Blessing beat Don Bosco 1-0 in Ligue 1 on April 11, 2021.

The match was played at Stade du TP Mazembe in Lubumbashi.