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Blessing vs Don Bosco — Ligue 1 2019

Blessing
Blessing
FT
0 – 0
Don Bosco
Don Bosco
11/25/2023Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 12Stade Dominique Diur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Blessing43%
×Draw30%
Don Bosco26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Blessing
1.17
Don Bosco
0.84

Blessing creates 39% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 96 away

creates per match

Blessing
1.19
Don Bosco
0.85

allows per match

Blessing
0.84
Don Bosco
1.16

finishing

Blessing+0.00on par
Don Bosco+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blessing ↓

Don Bosco →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Blessing or draw
74%
Blessing or Don Bosco
70%
Draw or Don Bosco
57%

Winning margin

Blessing wins by 2+
19%
Don Bosco wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Blessing 1+ goals
69%
Blessing 2+ goals
33%
Blessing 3+ goals
11%
Don Bosco 1+ goals
57%
Don Bosco 2+ goals
21%
Don Bosco 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Blessing (draw refunded)
62%
Don Bosco (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blessing at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.84 · 67 matches

Don Bosco away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.16 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blessing attack 1.19 + Don Bosco defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.17

Don Bosco attack 0.85 + Blessing defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Blessing scores more
43%
level
30%
Don Bosco scores more
26%

Blessing at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Blessing will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Blessing vs Don Bosco

Blessing and Don Bosco drew 0-0 in Ligue 1 on November 25, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Dominique Diur in Kolwezi.