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Don Benito vs RCP Valverdeño — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Don Benito
Don Benito
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
RCP Valverdeño
RCP Valverdeño
3/30/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 28Estadio Vicente Sanz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Don Benito74%
×Draw17%
RCP Valverdeño8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Don Benito
2.17
RCP Valverdeño
0.56

Don Benito creates 287% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 46 away

creates per match

Don Benito
2.50
RCP Valverdeño
0.72

allows per match

Don Benito
0.41
RCP Valverdeño
1.85

finishing

Don Benito+0.00on par
RCP Valverdeño+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Don Benito ↓

RCP Valverdeño →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–18%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Don Benito or draw
92%
Don Benito or RCP Valverdeño
83%
Draw or RCP Valverdeño
26%

Winning margin

Don Benito wins by 2+
50%
RCP Valverdeño wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Don Benito 1+ goals
89%
Don Benito 2+ goals
64%
Don Benito 3+ goals
36%
RCP Valverdeño 1+ goals
43%
RCP Valverdeño 2+ goals
11%
RCP Valverdeño 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Don Benito (draw refunded)
90%
RCP Valverdeño (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Don Benito at home — creates 2.50, concedes 0.41 · 34 matches

RCP Valverdeño away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.85 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Don Benito attack 2.50 + RCP Valverdeño defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 2.17

RCP Valverdeño attack 0.72 + Don Benito defence 0.41 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Don Benito scores more
74%
level
17%
RCP Valverdeño scores more
8%

Don Benito at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Don Benito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14: Don Benito 2–0 RCP Valverdeño

Don Benito beat RCP Valverdeño 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on March 30, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Vicente Sanz in Don Benito.