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Don Benito vs Jerez — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Don Benito
Don Benito
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Jerez
Jerez
9/10/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 1Estadio Vicente Sanz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Don Benito66%
×Draw20%
Jerez14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Don Benito
2.02
Jerez
0.78

Don Benito creates 159% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 107 away

creates per match

Don Benito
2.50
Jerez
1.15

allows per match

Don Benito
0.41
Jerez
1.54

finishing

Don Benito+0.00on par
Jerez+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Don Benito ↓

Jerez →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Don Benito or draw
86%
Don Benito or Jerez
80%
Draw or Jerez
34%

Winning margin

Don Benito wins by 2+
41%
Jerez wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Don Benito 1+ goals
87%
Don Benito 2+ goals
60%
Don Benito 3+ goals
33%
Jerez 1+ goals
54%
Jerez 2+ goals
18%
Jerez 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Don Benito (draw refunded)
83%
Jerez (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Don Benito at home — creates 2.50, concedes 0.41 · 34 matches

Jerez away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.54 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Don Benito attack 2.50 + Jerez defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 2.02

Jerez attack 1.15 + Don Benito defence 0.41 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Don Benito scores more
66%
level
20%
Jerez scores more
14%

Don Benito at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Don Benito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Don Benito vs Jerez

Don Benito and Jerez drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on September 10, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Vicente Sanz in Don Benito.