Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Don Benito vs Fuente Cantos — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Don Benito
Don Benito
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Fuente Cantos
Fuente Cantos
10/22/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 8Estadio Vicente Sanz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Don Benito71%
×Draw19%
Fuente Cantos10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Don Benito
2.08
Fuente Cantos
0.65

Don Benito creates 220% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 61 away

creates per match

Don Benito
2.50
Fuente Cantos
0.89

allows per match

Don Benito
0.41
Fuente Cantos
1.67

finishing

Don Benito+0.00on par
Fuente Cantos+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Don Benito ↓

Fuente Cantos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Don Benito or draw
90%
Don Benito or Fuente Cantos
81%
Draw or Fuente Cantos
29%

Winning margin

Don Benito wins by 2+
45%
Fuente Cantos wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Don Benito 1+ goals
87%
Don Benito 2+ goals
61%
Don Benito 3+ goals
34%
Fuente Cantos 1+ goals
48%
Fuente Cantos 2+ goals
14%
Fuente Cantos 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Don Benito (draw refunded)
87%
Fuente Cantos (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Don Benito at home — creates 2.50, concedes 0.41 · 34 matches

Fuente Cantos away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.67 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Don Benito attack 2.50 + Fuente Cantos defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.08

Fuente Cantos attack 0.89 + Don Benito defence 0.41 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Don Benito scores more
71%
level
19%
Fuente Cantos scores more
10%

Don Benito at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Don Benito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Don Benito vs Fuente Cantos

Don Benito beat Fuente Cantos 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on October 22, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Vicente Sanz in Don Benito.