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Don Benito vs Diocesano — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Don Benito
Don Benito
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Diocesano
Diocesano
2/25/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 23Estadio Vicente Sanz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Don Benito61%
×Draw22%
Diocesano17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Don Benito
1.94
Diocesano
0.91

Don Benito creates 113% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 93 away

creates per match

Don Benito
2.50
Diocesano
1.42

allows per match

Don Benito
0.41
Diocesano
1.38

finishing

Don Benito+0.00on par
Diocesano+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Don Benito ↓

Diocesano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Don Benito or draw
83%
Don Benito or Diocesano
78%
Draw or Diocesano
39%

Winning margin

Don Benito wins by 2+
37%
Diocesano wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Don Benito 1+ goals
86%
Don Benito 2+ goals
58%
Don Benito 3+ goals
30%
Diocesano 1+ goals
60%
Diocesano 2+ goals
23%
Diocesano 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Don Benito (draw refunded)
78%
Diocesano (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Don Benito at home — creates 2.50, concedes 0.41 · 34 matches

Diocesano away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.38 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Don Benito attack 2.50 + Diocesano defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.94

Diocesano attack 1.42 + Don Benito defence 0.41 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Don Benito scores more
61%
level
22%
Diocesano scores more
17%

Don Benito at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Don Benito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Don Benito vs Diocesano

Don Benito beat Diocesano 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on February 25, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Vicente Sanz in Don Benito.