Don Benito 1–3 Badajoz: Result & Stats

Don Benito

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Badajoz

1/24/2021

Primera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 11Estadio Vicente Sanz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Don Benito23%

×Draw27%

Badajoz50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Don BenitoExpected goals in this matchBadajoz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.88

1.42

Don Benito

0.88

Badajoz

1.42

Badajoz creates 61% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 12 away

1.08

creates per match

1.67

1.17

allows per match

0.67

creates per match

Don Benito

1.08

Badajoz

1.67

allows per match

Don Benito

1.17

Badajoz

0.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Don Benito+0.00on par

Badajoz+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Don Benito ↓

Badajoz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–114%

0–210%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Don Benito or draw

50%

Don Benito or Badajoz

73%

Draw or Badajoz

77%

Winning margin

Don Benito wins by 2+

8%

Badajoz wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Don Benito 1+ goals

59%

Don Benito 2+ goals

22%

Don Benito 3+ goals

6%

Badajoz 1+ goals

76%

Badajoz 2+ goals

41%

Badajoz 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Don Benito (draw refunded)

32%

Badajoz (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Don Benito at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

Badajoz away — creates 1.67, concedes 0.67 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Don Benito attack 1.08 + Badajoz defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.88

Badajoz attack 1.67 + Don Benito defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Don Benito scores more

23%

level

27%

Badajoz scores more

50%

Badajoz at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Badajoz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff