Don Benito 2–0 Azuaga: Result & Stats

Don Benito

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Azuaga

11/5/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 10Estadio Vicente Sanz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Don Benito60%

×Draw22%

Azuaga18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Don BenitoExpected goals in this matchAzuaga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

0.88

Don Benito

1.84

Azuaga

0.88

Don Benito creates 109% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 108 away

2.50

creates per match

1.34

0.41

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Don Benito

2.50

Azuaga

1.34

allows per match

Don Benito

0.41

Azuaga

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Don Benito+0.00on par

Azuaga+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Don Benito ↓

Azuaga →

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Don Benito or draw

82%

Don Benito or Azuaga

78%

Draw or Azuaga

40%

Winning margin

Don Benito wins by 2+

35%

Azuaga wins by 2+

Team goals

Don Benito 1+ goals

84%

Don Benito 2+ goals

55%

Don Benito 3+ goals

28%

Azuaga 1+ goals

59%

Azuaga 2+ goals

22%

Azuaga 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Don Benito (draw refunded)

77%

Azuaga (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Don Benito at home — creates 2.50, concedes 0.41 · 34 matches

Azuaga away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.18 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Don Benito attack 2.50 + Azuaga defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.84

Azuaga attack 1.34 + Don Benito defence 0.41 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 60%?"

Don Benito scores more

60%

level

22%

Azuaga scores more

18%

Don Benito at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Don Benito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff