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Don Benito vs Atlético Pueblonuevo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Don Benito
Don Benito
FT
6 – 1
HT: 4 – 1
Atlético Pueblonuevo
Atlético Pueblonuevo
9/14/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 2Estadio Vicente Sanz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Don Benito75%
×Draw17%
Atlético Pueblonuevo9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Don Benito
2.30
Atlético Pueblonuevo
0.63

Don Benito creates 265% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 66 away

creates per match

Don Benito
2.50
Atlético Pueblonuevo
0.85

allows per match

Don Benito
0.41
Atlético Pueblonuevo
2.11

finishing

Don Benito+0.00on par
Atlético Pueblonuevo+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Don Benito ↓

Atlético Pueblonuevo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–18%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Don Benito or draw
91%
Don Benito or Atlético Pueblonuevo
83%
Draw or Atlético Pueblonuevo
25%

Winning margin

Don Benito wins by 2+
51%
Atlético Pueblonuevo wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Don Benito 1+ goals
90%
Don Benito 2+ goals
67%
Don Benito 3+ goals
40%
Atlético Pueblonuevo 1+ goals
47%
Atlético Pueblonuevo 2+ goals
13%
Atlético Pueblonuevo 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Don Benito (draw refunded)
90%
Atlético Pueblonuevo (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Don Benito at home — creates 2.50, concedes 0.41 · 34 matches

Atlético Pueblonuevo away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.11 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Don Benito attack 2.50 + Atlético Pueblonuevo defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 2.30

Atlético Pueblonuevo attack 0.85 + Don Benito defence 0.41 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Don Benito scores more
75%
level
17%
Atlético Pueblonuevo scores more
9%

Don Benito at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Don Benito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Don Benito 6 – 1 Atlético Pueblonuevo

Don Benito beat Atlético Pueblonuevo 6-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on September 14, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Vicente Sanz in Don Benito.