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Don Benito vs Arroyo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Don Benito
Don Benito
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Arroyo
Arroyo
9/24/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 3Estadio Vicente Sanz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Don Benito68%
×Draw20%
Arroyo12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Don Benito
1.94
Arroyo
0.65

Don Benito creates 198% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 90 away

creates per match

Don Benito
2.50
Arroyo
0.89

allows per match

Don Benito
0.41
Arroyo
1.37

finishing

Don Benito+0.00on par
Arroyo+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Don Benito ↓

Arroyo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Don Benito or draw
88%
Don Benito or Arroyo
80%
Draw or Arroyo
32%

Winning margin

Don Benito wins by 2+
42%
Arroyo wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Don Benito 1+ goals
86%
Don Benito 2+ goals
58%
Don Benito 3+ goals
30%
Arroyo 1+ goals
48%
Arroyo 2+ goals
14%
Arroyo 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Don Benito (draw refunded)
85%
Arroyo (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Don Benito at home — creates 2.50, concedes 0.41 · 34 matches

Arroyo away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.37 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Don Benito attack 2.50 + Arroyo defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.94

Arroyo attack 0.89 + Don Benito defence 0.41 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Don Benito scores more
68%
level
20%
Arroyo scores more
12%

Don Benito at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Don Benito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14: Don Benito 2–0 Arroyo

Don Benito beat Arroyo 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on September 24, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Vicente Sanz in Don Benito.