Don Álvaro 2–1 Trujillo: Result & Stats

Don Álvaro

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Trujillo

9/19/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 2Estadio Municipal Pedro Manuel Barrero Macias

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Don Álvaro40%

×Draw27%

Trujillo33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Don ÁlvaroExpected goals in this matchTrujillo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.15

Don Álvaro

1.31

Trujillo

1.15

Don Álvaro creates 14% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 92 away

1.26

creates per match

1.03

1.26

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Don Álvaro

1.26

Trujillo

1.03

allows per match

Don Álvaro

1.26

Trujillo

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Don Álvaro+0.00on par

Trujillo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Don Álvaro ↓

Trujillo →

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Don Álvaro or draw

67%

Don Álvaro or Trujillo

73%

Draw or Trujillo

60%

Winning margin

Don Álvaro wins by 2+

18%

Trujillo wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Don Álvaro 1+ goals

73%

Don Álvaro 2+ goals

38%

Don Álvaro 3+ goals

14%

Trujillo 1+ goals

68%

Trujillo 2+ goals

32%

Trujillo 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Don Álvaro (draw refunded)

55%

Trujillo (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Don Álvaro at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.26 · 47 matches

Trujillo away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.37 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Don Álvaro attack 1.26 + Trujillo defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.31

Trujillo attack 1.03 + Don Álvaro defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

Don Álvaro scores more

40%

level

27%

Trujillo scores more

33%

Don Álvaro at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Don Álvaro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff