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Don Álvaro vs RCP Valverdeño — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Don Álvaro
Don Álvaro
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
RCP Valverdeño
RCP Valverdeño
5/5/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 33Estadio Municipal Pedro Manuel Barrero Macias

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Don Álvaro51%
×Draw25%
RCP Valverdeño24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Don Álvaro
1.56
RCP Valverdeño
0.99

Don Álvaro creates 58% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 46 away

creates per match

Don Álvaro
1.26
RCP Valverdeño
0.72

allows per match

Don Álvaro
1.26
RCP Valverdeño
1.85

finishing

Don Álvaro+0.00on par
RCP Valverdeño+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Don Álvaro ↓

RCP Valverdeño →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Don Álvaro or draw
76%
Don Álvaro or RCP Valverdeño
75%
Draw or RCP Valverdeño
49%

Winning margin

Don Álvaro wins by 2+
26%
RCP Valverdeño wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Don Álvaro 1+ goals
79%
Don Álvaro 2+ goals
46%
Don Álvaro 3+ goals
21%
RCP Valverdeño 1+ goals
63%
RCP Valverdeño 2+ goals
26%
RCP Valverdeño 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Don Álvaro (draw refunded)
68%
RCP Valverdeño (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Don Álvaro at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.26 · 47 matches

RCP Valverdeño away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.85 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Don Álvaro attack 1.26 + RCP Valverdeño defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.56

RCP Valverdeño attack 0.72 + Don Álvaro defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Don Álvaro scores more
51%
level
25%
RCP Valverdeño scores more
24%

Don Álvaro at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Don Álvaro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Don Álvaro vs RCP Valverdeño

RCP Valverdeño beat Don Álvaro 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on May 5, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Pedro Manuel Barrero Macias in Don Álvaro.