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Don Álvaro vs Castuera — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Don Álvaro
Don Álvaro
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Castuera
Castuera
3/24/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 27Estadio Municipal Pedro Manuel Barrero Macias

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Don Álvaro45%
×Draw26%
Castuera28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Don Álvaro
1.43
Castuera
1.07

Don Álvaro creates 34% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 34 away

creates per match

Don Álvaro
1.26
Castuera
0.88

allows per match

Don Álvaro
1.26
Castuera
1.59

finishing

Don Álvaro+0.00on par
Castuera+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Don Álvaro ↓

Castuera →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Don Álvaro or draw
72%
Don Álvaro or Castuera
74%
Draw or Castuera
55%

Winning margin

Don Álvaro wins by 2+
22%
Castuera wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Don Álvaro 1+ goals
76%
Don Álvaro 2+ goals
42%
Don Álvaro 3+ goals
17%
Castuera 1+ goals
66%
Castuera 2+ goals
29%
Castuera 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Don Álvaro (draw refunded)
62%
Castuera (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Don Álvaro at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.26 · 47 matches

Castuera away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.59 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Don Álvaro attack 1.26 + Castuera defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.43

Castuera attack 0.88 + Don Álvaro defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Don Álvaro scores more
45%
level
26%
Castuera scores more
28%

Don Álvaro at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Don Álvaro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Don Álvaro vs Castuera

Castuera beat Don Álvaro 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on March 24, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Pedro Manuel Barrero Macias in Don Álvaro.