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Don Álvaro vs Atlético Pueblonuevo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Don Álvaro
Don Álvaro
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Atlético Pueblonuevo
Atlético Pueblonuevo
4/16/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 29Estadio Municipal Pedro Manuel Barrero Macias

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Don Álvaro52%
×Draw24%
Atlético Pueblonuevo24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Don Álvaro
1.69
Atlético Pueblonuevo
1.05

Don Álvaro creates 61% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 66 away

creates per match

Don Álvaro
1.26
Atlético Pueblonuevo
0.85

allows per match

Don Álvaro
1.26
Atlético Pueblonuevo
2.11

finishing

Don Álvaro+0.00on par
Atlético Pueblonuevo+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Don Álvaro ↓

Atlético Pueblonuevo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Don Álvaro or draw
76%
Don Álvaro or Atlético Pueblonuevo
76%
Draw or Atlético Pueblonuevo
48%

Winning margin

Don Álvaro wins by 2+
28%
Atlético Pueblonuevo wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Don Álvaro 1+ goals
82%
Don Álvaro 2+ goals
50%
Don Álvaro 3+ goals
24%
Atlético Pueblonuevo 1+ goals
65%
Atlético Pueblonuevo 2+ goals
28%
Atlético Pueblonuevo 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Don Álvaro (draw refunded)
69%
Atlético Pueblonuevo (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Don Álvaro at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.26 · 47 matches

Atlético Pueblonuevo away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.11 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Don Álvaro attack 1.26 + Atlético Pueblonuevo defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.69

Atlético Pueblonuevo attack 0.85 + Don Álvaro defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Don Álvaro scores more
52%
level
24%
Atlético Pueblonuevo scores more
24%

Don Álvaro at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Don Álvaro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Don Álvaro vs Atlético Pueblonuevo

Don Álvaro beat Atlético Pueblonuevo 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on April 16, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Pedro Manuel Barrero Macias in Don Álvaro.