Dominican Republic W 1–1 Trinidad and Tobago W

Dominican Republic W

FT

1 – 1

Trinidad and Tobago W

11/30/2021

Friendlies Women · Friendlies 2Estadio Panamericano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Dominican Republic W41%

×Draw26%

Trinidad and Tobago W33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dominican Republic WExpected goals in this matchTrinidad and Tobago W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.25

Dominican Republic W

1.44

Trinidad and Tobago W

1.25

Dominican Republic W creates 15% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 4 away

1.63

creates per match

1.75

0.75

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Dominican Republic W

1.63

Trinidad and Tobago W

1.75

allows per match

Dominican Republic W

0.75

Trinidad and Tobago W

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dominican Republic W+0.00on par

Trinidad and Tobago W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dominican Republic W ↓

Trinidad and Tobago W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Dominican Republic W or draw

67%

Dominican Republic W or Trinidad and Tobago W

74%

Draw or Trinidad and Tobago W

59%

Winning margin

Dominican Republic W wins by 2+

20%

Trinidad and Tobago W wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Dominican Republic W 1+ goals

76%

Dominican Republic W 2+ goals

42%

Dominican Republic W 3+ goals

18%

Trinidad and Tobago W 1+ goals

71%

Trinidad and Tobago W 2+ goals

36%

Trinidad and Tobago W 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Dominican Republic W (draw refunded)

56%

Trinidad and Tobago W (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dominican Republic W at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.75 · 8 matches

Trinidad and Tobago W away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dominican Republic W attack 1.63 + Trinidad and Tobago W defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.44

Trinidad and Tobago W attack 1.75 + Dominican Republic W defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Dominican Republic W scores more

41%

level

26%

Trinidad and Tobago W scores more

33%

Dominican Republic W at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Dominican Republic W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff