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Dominican Republic W vs Cayman Islands W — Friendlies Women 2026

Dominican Republic W
Dominican Republic W
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Cayman Islands W
Cayman Islands W
M. Castaneda 50'
Y. Brito 47'
L. Sano 4'
7/15/2025Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · FriendliesEstadio Panamericano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Dominican Republic W94%
×Draw5%
Cayman Islands W1%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dominican Republic W
3.94
Cayman Islands W
0.38

Dominican Republic W creates 937% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 4 away

creates per match

Dominican Republic W
1.63
Cayman Islands W
0.00

allows per match

Dominican Republic W
0.75
Cayman Islands W
6.25

finishing

Dominican Republic W+0.00on par
Cayman Islands W+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dominican Republic W ↓

Cayman Islands W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–12%
1–20%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–14%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–015%
3–16%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–015%
4–16%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (15%) · grid covers 72% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
58%42%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Dominican Republic W or draw
99%
Dominican Republic W or Cayman Islands W
95%
Draw or Cayman Islands W
6%

Winning margin

Dominican Republic W wins by 2+
83%
Cayman Islands W wins by 2+
0%

Team goals

Dominican Republic W 1+ goals
98%
Dominican Republic W 2+ goals
89%
Dominican Republic W 3+ goals
72%
Cayman Islands W 1+ goals
32%
Cayman Islands W 2+ goals
6%
Cayman Islands W 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Dominican Republic W (draw refunded)
99%
Cayman Islands W (draw refunded)
1%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dominican Republic W at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.75 · 8 matches

Cayman Islands W away — creates 0.00, concedes 6.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dominican Republic W attack 1.63 + Cayman Islands W defence 6.25 → ÷2 → 3.94

Cayman Islands W attack 0.00 + Dominican Republic W defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 94%?"

Dominican Republic W scores more
94%
level
5%
Cayman Islands W scores more
1%

Dominican Republic W at 94% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 94% does not mean "Dominican Republic W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
L. Sano
47'
Y. Brito
50'
M. Castaneda

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Women: Dominican Republic W 3–0 Cayman Islands W

Dominican Republic W beat Cayman Islands W 3-0 in Friendlies Women on July 15, 2025.

Goals: L. Sano (4'), Y. Brito (47'), M. Castaneda (50').

The match was played at Estadio Panamericano in San Cristóbal.