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Dominican Republic W vs Bolivia W — Friendlies Women 2026

Dominican Republic W
Dominican Republic W
FT
1 – 1
Bolivia W
Bolivia W
G. Cuevas 16'
Unknown 68'
10/25/2021Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendlies 2Estadio Olímpico Félix Sánchez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Dominican Republic W81%
×Draw14%
Bolivia W6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dominican Republic W
2.50
Bolivia W
0.51

Dominican Republic W creates 390% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 11 away

creates per match

Dominican Republic W
1.63
Bolivia W
0.27

allows per match

Dominican Republic W
0.75
Bolivia W
3.36

finishing

Dominican Republic W+0.00on par
Bolivia W+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dominican Republic W ↓

Bolivia W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–16%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–013%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (16%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Dominican Republic W or draw
94%
Dominican Republic W or Bolivia W
86%
Draw or Bolivia W
19%

Winning margin

Dominican Republic W wins by 2+
58%
Bolivia W wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Dominican Republic W 1+ goals
92%
Dominican Republic W 2+ goals
71%
Dominican Republic W 3+ goals
45%
Bolivia W 1+ goals
40%
Bolivia W 2+ goals
9%
Bolivia W 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Dominican Republic W (draw refunded)
93%
Bolivia W (draw refunded)
7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dominican Republic W at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.75 · 8 matches

Bolivia W away — creates 0.27, concedes 3.36 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dominican Republic W attack 1.63 + Bolivia W defence 3.36 → ÷2 → 2.50

Bolivia W attack 0.27 + Dominican Republic W defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Dominican Republic W scores more
81%
level
14%
Bolivia W scores more
6%

Dominican Republic W at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Dominican Republic W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'
G. Cuevas
38'
46'
L. Clase← L. Clase
53'
61'
J. Oviedo← J. Oviedo
68'
70'
A. Vargas← A. Vargas
77'
78'
M. Lareo
82'
83'
Y. Peralta← Y. Peralta
83'
M. Lopez← M. Lopez
90+2'
90+2'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Women: Dominican Republic W 1–1 Bolivia W

Dominican Republic W and Bolivia W drew 1-1 in Friendlies Women on October 25, 2021.

Goals: G. Cuevas (16'), ? (68').

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Félix Sánchez in Santo Domingo.