Dome 0–2 Nakhon Ratchasima FC: Result & Stats

Dome

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Nakhon Ratchasima FC

11/20/2024

FA Cup · 2nd RoundBangkok University Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Dome6%

×Draw16%

Nakhon Ratchasima FC79%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DomeExpected goals in this matchNakhon Ratchasima FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.42

2.21

Dome

0.42

Nakhon Ratchasima FC

2.21

Nakhon Ratchasima FC creates 426% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 10 away

0.33

creates per match

2.10

2.33

allows per match

0.50

creates per match

Dome

0.33

Nakhon Ratchasima FC

2.10

allows per match

Dome

2.33

Nakhon Ratchasima FC

0.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dome+0.00on par

Nakhon Ratchasima FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No69
Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dome ↓

Nakhon Ratchasima FC →

0–07%

0–116%

0–218%

0–313%

0–47%

1–03%

1–17%

1–27%

1–35%

1–43%

2–01%

2–11%

2–22%

2–31%

2–41%

3–00%

3–10%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (18%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Dome or draw

21%

Dome or Nakhon Ratchasima FC

84%

Draw or Nakhon Ratchasima FC

94%

Winning margin

Dome wins by 2+

Nakhon Ratchasima FC wins by 2+

54%

Team goals

Dome 1+ goals

34%

Dome 2+ goals

Dome 3+ goals

Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1+ goals

89%

Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2+ goals

65%

Nakhon Ratchasima FC 3+ goals

38%

Draw no bet

Dome (draw refunded)

Nakhon Ratchasima FC (draw refunded)

93%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Dome at home — creates 0.33, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Nakhon Ratchasima FC away — creates 2.10, concedes 0.50 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Dome attack 0.33 + Nakhon Ratchasima FC defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.42

Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 2.10 + Dome defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 79%?"

Dome scores more

level

16%

Nakhon Ratchasima FC scores more

79%

Nakhon Ratchasima FC at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Nakhon Ratchasima FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff