Dome 1–1 Chiangrai: Result & Stats | FA Cup

Dome

AET

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Chiangrai

11/2/2022

FA Cup · 2nd RoundThammasat Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Dome58%

×Draw18%

Chiangrai23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DomeExpected goals in this matchChiangrai

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.67

1.67

Dome

2.67

Chiangrai

1.67

Dome creates 60% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

0.33

creates per match

1.00

2.33

allows per match

5.00

creates per match

Dome

0.33

Chiangrai

1.00

allows per match

Dome

2.33

Chiangrai

5.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dome+0.00on par

Chiangrai+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dome ↓

Chiangrai →

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–04%

1–16%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4–03%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

62%38%4.5

43%57%

Double chance

Dome or draw

77%

Dome or Chiangrai

82%

Draw or Chiangrai

42%

Winning margin

Dome wins by 2+

38%

Chiangrai wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Dome 1+ goals

93%

Dome 2+ goals

74%

Dome 3+ goals

49%

Chiangrai 1+ goals

81%

Chiangrai 2+ goals

50%

Chiangrai 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Dome (draw refunded)

71%

Chiangrai (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

69%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Dome at home — creates 0.33, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Chiangrai away — creates 1.00, concedes 5.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Dome attack 0.33 + Chiangrai defence 5.00 → ÷2 → 2.67

Chiangrai attack 1.00 + Dome defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 58%?"

Dome scores more

58%

level

18%

Chiangrai scores more

23%

Dome at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Dome will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff