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Dome vs Chiangmai FC — FA Cup 2018

Dome
Dome
FT
1 – 4
Chiangmai FC
Chiangmai FC
12/6/2020FA CupFA Cup · 2nd Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Dome10%
×Draw19%
Chiangmai FC71%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dome
0.59
Chiangmai FC
2.02

Chiangmai FC creates 242% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

creates per match

Dome
0.33
Chiangmai FC
1.71

allows per match

Dome
2.33
Chiangmai FC
0.86

finishing

Dome+0.00on par
Chiangmai FC+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dome ↓

Chiangmai FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–115%
0–215%
0–310%
0–45%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Dome or draw
29%
Dome or Chiangmai FC
81%
Draw or Chiangmai FC
90%

Winning margin

Dome wins by 2+
2%
Chiangmai FC wins by 2+
45%

Team goals

Dome 1+ goals
45%
Dome 2+ goals
12%
Dome 3+ goals
2%
Chiangmai FC 1+ goals
87%
Chiangmai FC 2+ goals
60%
Chiangmai FC 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Dome (draw refunded)
12%
Chiangmai FC (draw refunded)
88%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dome at home — creates 0.33, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Chiangmai FC away — creates 1.71, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dome attack 0.33 + Chiangmai FC defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.59

Chiangmai FC attack 1.71 + Dome defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Dome scores more
10%
level
19%
Chiangmai FC scores more
71%

Chiangmai FC at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Chiangmai FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Dome 1–4 Chiangmai FC

Chiangmai FC beat Dome 4-1 in FA Cup on December 6, 2020.