Domagnano 0–2 Virtus: Result & Stats | Coppa Titano

Domagnano

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Virtus

12/6/2023

Coppa Titano · Quarter-finalsStadio di Domagnano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Domagnano25%

×Draw31%

Virtus44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DomagnanoExpected goals in this matchVirtus

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.79

1.15

Domagnano

0.79

Virtus

1.15

Virtus creates 46% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 12 away

1.00

creates per match

1.08

1.22

allows per match

0.58

creates per match

Domagnano

1.00

Virtus

1.08

allows per match

Domagnano

1.22

Virtus

0.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Domagnano+0.00on par

Virtus+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Domagnano ↓

Virtus →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–117%

0–210%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–15%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Domagnano or draw

56%

Domagnano or Virtus

69%

Draw or Virtus

75%

Winning margin

Domagnano wins by 2+

8%

Virtus wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Domagnano 1+ goals

55%

Domagnano 2+ goals

19%

Domagnano 3+ goals

5%

Virtus 1+ goals

68%

Virtus 2+ goals

32%

Virtus 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Domagnano (draw refunded)

36%

Virtus (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Domagnano at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

Virtus away — creates 1.08, concedes 0.58 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Domagnano attack 1.00 + Virtus defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.79

Virtus attack 1.08 + Domagnano defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Domagnano scores more

25%

level

31%

Virtus scores more

44%

Virtus at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Virtus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff