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Domagnano vs Tre Penne — Coppa Titano 2020

Domagnano
Domagnano
PST
19:45
Tre Penne
Tre Penne
12/2/2020Coppa TitanoCoppa Titano · Quarter-finalsStadio Fonte Dell'Ovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Domagnano26%
×Draw25%
Tre Penne49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Domagnano
1.10
Tre Penne
1.61

Tre Penne creates 46% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 14 away

creates per match

Domagnano
1.00
Tre Penne
2.00

allows per match

Domagnano
1.22
Tre Penne
1.21

finishing

Domagnano+0.00on par
Tre Penne+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Domagnano ↓

Tre Penne →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Domagnano or draw
51%
Domagnano or Tre Penne
75%
Draw or Tre Penne
74%

Winning margin

Domagnano wins by 2+
10%
Tre Penne wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Domagnano 1+ goals
67%
Domagnano 2+ goals
30%
Domagnano 3+ goals
10%
Tre Penne 1+ goals
80%
Tre Penne 2+ goals
48%
Tre Penne 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Domagnano (draw refunded)
35%
Tre Penne (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Domagnano at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

Tre Penne away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.21 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Domagnano attack 1.00 + Tre Penne defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.10

Tre Penne attack 2.00 + Domagnano defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Domagnano scores more
26%
level
25%
Tre Penne scores more
49%

Tre Penne at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Tre Penne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Domagnano host Tre Penne

December 2, 2020: Domagnano take on Tre Penne in Coppa Titano. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Domagnano host Tre Penne at Stadio Fonte Dell'Ovo.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.