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Doma United vs Sporting Lagos — NPFL 2019

Doma United
Doma United
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sporting Lagos
Sporting Lagos
3/4/2024NPFLNPFL · Round 23Pantami Township Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Doma United60%
×Draw29%
Sporting Lagos12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Doma United
1.31
Sporting Lagos
0.41

Doma United creates 220% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 19 away

creates per match

Doma United
1.00
Sporting Lagos
0.42

allows per match

Doma United
0.39
Sporting Lagos
1.63

finishing

Doma United+0.00on par
Sporting Lagos+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

75%No
  • No75
  • Yes25

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Doma United ↓

Sporting Lagos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–023%
1–110%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–16%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (23%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
51%49%2.5
25%75%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Doma United or draw
88%
Doma United or Sporting Lagos
71%
Draw or Sporting Lagos
40%

Winning margin

Doma United wins by 2+
29%
Sporting Lagos wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Doma United 1+ goals
73%
Doma United 2+ goals
38%
Doma United 3+ goals
14%
Sporting Lagos 1+ goals
34%
Sporting Lagos 2+ goals
6%
Sporting Lagos 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Doma United (draw refunded)
84%
Sporting Lagos (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
15%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Doma United at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.39 · 28 matches

Sporting Lagos away — creates 0.42, concedes 1.63 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Doma United attack 1.00 + Sporting Lagos defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.31

Sporting Lagos attack 0.42 + Doma United defence 0.39 → ÷2 → 0.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Doma United scores more
60%
level
29%
Sporting Lagos scores more
12%

Doma United at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Doma United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'
S. Yusuf
20'
50'
55'
B. Yakubu← B. Yakubu
71'
G. Odibo← G. Odibo
71'
C. Naantaum← C. Naantaum
74'
C. Terwar← C. Terwar
74'
J. Okoro← J. Okoro
79'
M. Zaruma
79'
M. Zaruma
80'
85'
S. Enefiok← S. Enefiok
85'
M. Jamil← M. Jamil
85'
V. Akpikpi← V. Akpikpi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: Doma United 0–0 Sporting Lagos

Doma United and Sporting Lagos drew 0-0 in NPFL on March 4, 2024.

The match was played at Pantami Township Stadium in Gombe.