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Doma United vs Lobi Stars — NPFL 2019

Doma United
Doma United
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Lobi Stars
Lobi Stars
3/26/2023NPFLNPFL · Round 10Pantami Township Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Doma United56%
×Draw30%
Lobi Stars14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Doma United
1.24
Lobi Stars
0.46

Doma United creates 170% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 113 away

creates per match

Doma United
1.00
Lobi Stars
0.53

allows per match

Doma United
0.39
Lobi Stars
1.48

finishing

Doma United+0.00on par
Lobi Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Under
  • Under76
  • Over24

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

74%No
  • No74
  • Yes26

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Doma United ↓

Lobi Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–023%
1–110%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–16%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (23%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
51%49%2.5
24%76%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Doma United or draw
86%
Doma United or Lobi Stars
70%
Draw or Lobi Stars
44%

Winning margin

Doma United wins by 2+
26%
Lobi Stars wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Doma United 1+ goals
71%
Doma United 2+ goals
35%
Doma United 3+ goals
13%
Lobi Stars 1+ goals
37%
Lobi Stars 2+ goals
8%
Lobi Stars 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Doma United (draw refunded)
80%
Lobi Stars (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
16%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Doma United at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.39 · 28 matches

Lobi Stars away — creates 0.53, concedes 1.48 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Doma United attack 1.00 + Lobi Stars defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.24

Lobi Stars attack 0.53 + Doma United defence 0.39 → ÷2 → 0.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Doma United scores more
56%
level
30%
Lobi Stars scores more
14%

Doma United at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Doma United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Doma United vs Lobi Stars

Doma United beat Lobi Stars 2-0 in NPFL on March 26, 2023.

The match was played at Pantami Township Stadium in Gombe.