Doma United 1–0 Heartland: Result & Stats | NPFL

Doma United

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Heartland

12/20/2023

NPFL · Round 15Pantami Township Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Doma United57%

×Draw30%

Heartland14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Doma UnitedExpected goals in this matchHeartland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

0.46

Doma United

1.26

Heartland

0.46

Doma United creates 174% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 100 away

1.00

creates per match

0.53

0.39

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Doma United

1.00

Heartland

0.53

allows per match

Doma United

0.39

Heartland

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Doma United+0.00on par

Heartland+0.00on par

Total goals

Under75
Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No74
Yes26

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Doma United ↓

Heartland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–018%

0–18%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–023%

1–110%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (23%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

82%18%1.5

51%49%2.5

25%75%3.5

10%90%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Doma United or draw

86%

Doma United or Heartland

70%

Draw or Heartland

43%

Winning margin

Doma United wins by 2+

27%

Heartland wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Doma United 1+ goals

72%

Doma United 2+ goals

36%

Doma United 3+ goals

13%

Heartland 1+ goals

37%

Heartland 2+ goals

8%

Heartland 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Doma United (draw refunded)

81%

Heartland (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

16%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Doma United at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.39 · 28 matches

Heartland away — creates 0.53, concedes 1.52 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Doma United attack 1.00 + Heartland defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.26

Heartland attack 0.53 + Doma United defence 0.39 → ÷2 → 0.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Doma United scores more

57%

level

30%

Heartland scores more

14%

Doma United at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Doma United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff