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Doma United vs Enyimba — NPFL 2019

Doma United
Doma United
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Enyimba
Enyimba
H. Ekawu 17'
11/15/2023NPFLNPFL · Round 4Pantami Township Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Doma United49%
×Draw32%
Enyimba19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Doma United
1.11
Enyimba
0.56

Doma United creates 98% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 130 away

creates per match

Doma United
1.00
Enyimba
0.74

allows per match

Doma United
0.39
Enyimba
1.22

finishing

Doma United+0.00on par
Enyimba+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Under
  • Under77
  • Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

71%No
  • No71
  • Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Doma United ↓

Enyimba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–111%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–112%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–16%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
50%50%2.5
23%77%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Doma United or draw
81%
Doma United or Enyimba
68%
Draw or Enyimba
51%

Winning margin

Doma United wins by 2+
21%
Enyimba wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Doma United 1+ goals
67%
Doma United 2+ goals
30%
Doma United 3+ goals
10%
Enyimba 1+ goals
43%
Enyimba 2+ goals
11%
Enyimba 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Doma United (draw refunded)
73%
Enyimba (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
17%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Doma United at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.39 · 28 matches

Enyimba away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.22 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Doma United attack 1.00 + Enyimba defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.11

Enyimba attack 0.74 + Doma United defence 0.39 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Doma United scores more
49%
level
32%
Enyimba scores more
19%

Doma United at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Doma United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'
H. Ekawu
30'
D. Daga
44'
S. Suleiman
78'
A. Haruna
85'
M. Samuel
85'
D. Daga
85'
D. Daga

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Doma United vs Enyimba

Doma United beat Enyimba 1-0 in NPFL on November 15, 2023.

Goals: H. Ekawu (17').

The match was played at Pantami Township Stadium in Gombe.