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Doma United vs Bayelsa United — NPFL 2019

Doma United
Doma United
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Bayelsa United
Bayelsa United
4/23/2023NPFLNPFL · Round 15Pantami Township Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Doma United54%
×Draw31%
Bayelsa United15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Doma United
1.21
Bayelsa United
0.50

Doma United creates 142% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 66 away

creates per match

Doma United
1.00
Bayelsa United
0.61

allows per match

Doma United
0.39
Bayelsa United
1.41

finishing

Doma United+0.00on par
Bayelsa United+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

72%No
  • No72
  • Yes28

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Doma United ↓

Bayelsa United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–19%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–022%
1–111%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (22%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
51%49%2.5
25%75%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Doma United or draw
85%
Doma United or Bayelsa United
69%
Draw or Bayelsa United
46%

Winning margin

Doma United wins by 2+
25%
Bayelsa United wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Doma United 1+ goals
70%
Doma United 2+ goals
34%
Doma United 3+ goals
12%
Bayelsa United 1+ goals
39%
Bayelsa United 2+ goals
9%
Bayelsa United 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Doma United (draw refunded)
78%
Bayelsa United (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
17%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Doma United at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.39 · 28 matches

Bayelsa United away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.41 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Doma United attack 1.00 + Bayelsa United defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.21

Bayelsa United attack 0.61 + Doma United defence 0.39 → ÷2 → 0.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Doma United scores more
54%
level
31%
Bayelsa United scores more
15%

Doma United at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Doma United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Doma United vs Bayelsa United

Doma United beat Bayelsa United 2-1 in NPFL on April 23, 2023.

The match was played at Pantami Township Stadium in Gombe.