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Doma United vs Akwa Starlets — NPFL 2019

Doma United
Doma United
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Akwa Starlets
Akwa Starlets
1/22/2023NPFLNPFL · Round 3Pantami Township Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Doma United58%
×Draw29%
Akwa Starlets13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Doma United
1.30
Akwa Starlets
0.46

Doma United creates 183% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 60 away

creates per match

Doma United
1.00
Akwa Starlets
0.52

allows per match

Doma United
0.39
Akwa Starlets
1.60

finishing

Doma United+0.00on par
Akwa Starlets+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

73%No
  • No73
  • Yes27

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Doma United ↓

Akwa Starlets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–022%
1–110%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (22%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
52%48%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Doma United or draw
87%
Doma United or Akwa Starlets
71%
Draw or Akwa Starlets
42%

Winning margin

Doma United wins by 2+
28%
Akwa Starlets wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Doma United 1+ goals
73%
Doma United 2+ goals
37%
Doma United 3+ goals
14%
Akwa Starlets 1+ goals
37%
Akwa Starlets 2+ goals
8%
Akwa Starlets 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Doma United (draw refunded)
81%
Akwa Starlets (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
17%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Doma United at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.39 · 28 matches

Akwa Starlets away — creates 0.52, concedes 1.60 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Doma United attack 1.00 + Akwa Starlets defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.30

Akwa Starlets attack 0.52 + Doma United defence 0.39 → ÷2 → 0.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Doma United scores more
58%
level
29%
Akwa Starlets scores more
13%

Doma United at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Doma United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: Doma United 1–0 Akwa Starlets

Doma United beat Akwa Starlets 1-0 in NPFL on January 22, 2023.

The match was played at Pantami Township Stadium in Gombe.