Dolomiti Bellunesi 4–0 Virtus Ciserano Bergamo

Dolomiti Bellunesi

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo

N. Masut 63'

G. Marangon 57', 18', 4'

10/19/2024

Serie D - Girone C · Group C - 9Stadio Zugni Tauro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Dolomiti Bellunesi48%

×Draw27%

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dolomiti BellunesiExpected goals in this matchVirtus Ciserano Bergamo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

0.96

Dolomiti Bellunesi

1.43

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo

0.96

Dolomiti Bellunesi creates 49% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 19 away

1.59

creates per match

0.84

1.07

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Dolomiti Bellunesi

1.59

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo

0.84

allows per match

Dolomiti Bellunesi

1.07

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dolomiti Bellunesi+0.00on par

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dolomiti Bellunesi ↓

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Dolomiti Bellunesi or draw

75%

Dolomiti Bellunesi or Virtus Ciserano Bergamo

73%

Draw or Virtus Ciserano Bergamo

52%

Winning margin

Dolomiti Bellunesi wins by 2+

23%

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Dolomiti Bellunesi 1+ goals

76%

Dolomiti Bellunesi 2+ goals

42%

Dolomiti Bellunesi 3+ goals

17%

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo 1+ goals

62%

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo 2+ goals

25%

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Dolomiti Bellunesi (draw refunded)

65%

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dolomiti Bellunesi at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.07 · 70 matches

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.26 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dolomiti Bellunesi attack 1.59 + Virtus Ciserano Bergamo defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.43

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo attack 0.84 + Dolomiti Bellunesi defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Dolomiti Bellunesi scores more

48%

level

27%

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo scores more

25%

Dolomiti Bellunesi at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Dolomiti Bellunesi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

G. Marangon

18'

G. Marangon

57'

G. Marangon

63'

N. Masut

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff