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Dolomiti Bellunesi vs Mestre — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Dolomiti Bellunesi
Dolomiti Bellunesi
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Mestre
Mestre
2/12/2023Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 23Stadio Comunale Polisportivo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Dolomiti Bellunesi46%
×Draw27%
Mestre27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dolomiti Bellunesi
1.39
Mestre
1.00

Dolomiti Bellunesi creates 39% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 101 away

creates per match

Dolomiti Bellunesi
1.59
Mestre
0.94

allows per match

Dolomiti Bellunesi
1.07
Mestre
1.19

finishing

Dolomiti Bellunesi+0.00on par
Mestre+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dolomiti Bellunesi ↓

Mestre →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Dolomiti Bellunesi or draw
73%
Dolomiti Bellunesi or Mestre
73%
Draw or Mestre
54%

Winning margin

Dolomiti Bellunesi wins by 2+
22%
Mestre wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Dolomiti Bellunesi 1+ goals
75%
Dolomiti Bellunesi 2+ goals
40%
Dolomiti Bellunesi 3+ goals
16%
Mestre 1+ goals
63%
Mestre 2+ goals
26%
Mestre 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Dolomiti Bellunesi (draw refunded)
63%
Mestre (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dolomiti Bellunesi at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.07 · 70 matches

Mestre away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.19 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dolomiti Bellunesi attack 1.59 + Mestre defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.39

Mestre attack 0.94 + Dolomiti Bellunesi defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Dolomiti Bellunesi scores more
46%
level
27%
Mestre scores more
27%

Dolomiti Bellunesi at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Dolomiti Bellunesi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dolomiti Bellunesi vs Mestre

Mestre beat Dolomiti Bellunesi 2-1 in Serie D - Girone C on February 12, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Polisportivo in Belluno.